[권혁태칼럼] 홍콩의 딜레마 Hong Kong’s Dilemma

[English to follow after Korean]

 

지난 주말 홍콩에서 일어난 시위를 홍콩 친구들 페북을 보며 8월에 있었던 선거와 시위와는 많은 차이가 있다고 본다. 오늘 내일 저녁이 분수령이 될듯한데 읽어본 글중에 두 기사가 좋은 내용이 많아 적는다.

 

 

Protesters block traffic on a main road near the government headquarters in Hong Kong on Sept. 28.Reuters/Bobby Yip 

 

 

1. “홍콩에서 일어나는 일은 당신이 생각하는 것과는 다르다” China Uncensored: What’s Happening in Hong Kong is Not What You Think…By Chris Chappell | September 19, 2014

 

주요 내용: 사실 중국 공산당은 내부 분열이 매우 심하다. 시진핑는 반대파인 장저민의 상하이방을 “부패척결” 의 타이틀 아래 제거하고 있고 최근 현재 17기 중앙정치국 상무위원 9명중 (중국 공산장의 가장 최고 핵심 인원들) 저우융캉(周永康) 정치법률위원회 (상하이방의 대표인물) 서기가 체포되면서 상하이방은 급격히 궁지에 몰리게 되었다. 그래서 상하이방의 3명중 마지막 남은 상무위원인 전인대 서기인 장더장이 홍콩의 정책을 결정하는 전인대의 백서를 통해 홍콩 선거 방식에 변화를 주었고 그로 인해 마지막 보루인 홍콩에서 시위를 조장하며 시진핑에게 타격을 주기 위한것이라는 글. 그래서 홍콩인들이 반대시위를 해도 사실 상하이방이 원하는 대로 흘러가는 것이고 그렇다고 또 시위를 안하자니 그럼 홍콩선거에 베이징이 간섭하는것을 인정하는 꼴이 되어버리니 홍콩은 지금 딜레마에 빠져있다.

 

장쩌민의 남자 장더장, 장파 마지막 보루 홍콩서 시진핑과 맞짱

 

[정치 핫이슈] 중국을 움직이는 3개의 권력집단 – 태자당, 공청단, 상하이방

 

2. Hong Kong’s unprecedented protests and police crackdown, explained 홍콩시위와 경찰진압 설명

 

사건의 발단은 사실 지난 주말이 아니라 몇달 되었다. 주요 내용은 2017년 홍콩 지도자를 홍콩인들이 직접 투표를 통해 뽑을 수 있게 약속을 하였는데 최근들어 백서를 통해 말을 바꾸어 선거는 자유롭게 할 수 있게 하되 후보자는 베이징에서 미리 승인 절차를 받아야한다! (얼마나 중국다운 발상인가!)

 

지난 8월에도 시위가 있었으나 저번 주말의 평화적인 시위를 경찰이 공포탄이 들어있는 총까지 꺼내며 강제진압에 나서면서 매우 격앙된 분위기이다. 홍콩의 시민들이 베이징의 간섭을 인정할것인가 아니면 거절할 것인가를 결정하는 중요한 시점인데 어떤 선택을 할 것인지 궁금하다. 9월 중순에 진행된 선거에서 48%의 투표자가 베이징의 결정은 반민주적이므로 철회해야한다고 했고 39%는 부족하지만 그래도 받아들어야 한다는 입장. 그래서 이번 시위는 반으로 갈라진 홍콩인의 민심을 한쪽으로 몰아갈 수 있는 절호의 기회이고 또한 이게 중국 대륙의 내부 파벌 싸움에 지대한 영향을 미칠 수 있는 가능성이 크다. 개인적으로 홍콩에 지인이 많는 나로서 다치는 사람이 없길 바라며.

 

[ENG]

 

 

 

As China-watcher and current resident of Shanghai and previously of Hong Kong, what’s happening in Hong Kong is very close to my heart. I hope there will be no major injuries during the protest.

 

Today, I read a few articles that provided different perspectives and I wanted to take this opportunity to note down some of the points. I’d be open to any other comment to better educate myself on what’s actually happening behind.

 

With 48% Hong Kong should reject the plan as insufficiently democratic, while 39 percent said they should accept the deal despite the tradeoffs in mid-September voting. I am interested to know how this protest may swing the minds of Hong Kong people and it may impact the internal power struggles of Beijing.

 

Thought: the situation maybe more complicated than we see from the surface. What choices will the people of HK make and as the power struggles within the communist party of China worsens, the impact will spill over to other neighboring countries.

 

Article 1: Hong Kong’s unprecedented protests and police crackdown, explained

 

The situation maybe more complicated than we see from the surface. What choices will the people of HK make and as the power struggles of China worsens, the impact will spill over to other neighboring countries. A couple of points I wanted to highlight from two articles on the Hong Kong protest.

 

The really important thing is what happened next: Hong Kong’s police cracked down with surprising force, fighting in the streets with protesters and eventually emerging with guns that, while likely filled with rubber bullets, look awfully militaristic. In response, outraged Hong Kong residents flooded into the streets to join the protesters, and on Sunday police blanketed Central with tear gas, which has been seen as a shocking and outrageous escalation. The Chinese central government issued a statement endorsing the police actions, as did Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing chief executive, a tacit signal that Beijing wishes for the protests to be cleared.

 

Article 2: China Uncensored: What’s Happening in Hong Kong is Not What You Think…

 

China is basically ruled by a scary council of seven old Chinese men known as the Politburo Standing Committee, and only three are still loyal to Jiang. They are Liu Yunshan, Zhang Gaoli, and Zhang Dejiang. Let’s forget about the other two and focus on Zhang Dejiang.

 

Zhang is the head of the NPC. So when the NPC rules against universal suffrage in Hong Kong, or releases a white paper saying Beijing can do whatever it wants there, that’s basically Zhang Dejiang saying that.

 

So let’s connect the dots. One month after fellow Jiang faction member Zhou Yongkang is taken out, Zhang Dejiang does something that is guaranteed to inflame Hong Kong, right before the potentially massive Occupy Central protest.

 

Jiang’s faction wants trouble in Hong Kong. In fact, Zhang Dejiang was expecting it. According to Forbes, Zhang said Beijing expected “something might happen.”

 

And since people saw an envoy of 10 extra tanks rolling into Hong Kong right before the NPC announced they’d be taking away universal suffrage, I think its blood on the streets they want—another Tiananmen Square massacre.

 

Jiang Zemin got into power in the first place because of the massacre. If they can manufacture another one in Hong Kong, that would be a huge blow to Xi Jinping. Xi would become the face of whatever happens in Hong Kong. He would have to clean all that up, and that would make it harder for him to continue going after his political enemies.

And if Xi is destabilized enough, it could even be a chance for Jiang’s faction to regain power. Hong Kong is becoming a powder keg and this might have been an attempt to throw the match that would set it off. And if the people of Hong Kong aren’t careful, they could be playing right into the hands of some pretty bad guys.

 

A big part of that deal was China’s promise that, in 2017, Hong Kong’s citizens would be allowed to democratically elect their top leader for the first time ever. That leader, known as the Hong Kong chief executive, is currently appointed by a pro-Beijing committee. In 2007, the Chinese government reaffirmed its promise to give Hong Kong this right in 2017, which in Hong Kong is referred to as universal suffrage — a sign of how much value people assign to it.

 

But there have been disturbing signs throughout this year that the central Chinese government might renege on its promise. In July, the Chinese government issued a “white paper” stating that it has “comprehensive jurisdiction” over Hong Kong and that “the high degree of autonomy of [Hong Kong] is not an inherent power, but one that comes solely from the authorization by the central leadership.” It sounded to many like a warning from Beijing that it could dilute or outright revoke Hong Kong’s freedoms, and tens of thousands of Hong Kong’s citizens marched in protest.

 

Then, in August, Beijing announced its plan for Hong Kong’s 2017 elections. While citizens would be allowed to vote for the chief executive, the candidates for the election would have to be approved by a special committee just like the pro-Beijing committee that currently appoints the chief executive. This lets Beijing hand-pick candidates for the job, which is anti-democratic in itself, but also feels to many in Hong Kong like a first step toward eroding their promised democratic rights.

 

 

 

 

칼럼니스트 권혁태

캐나다 퀸즈대학과 중국 북경대학에서 경영학과 중국어를 공부했다. 졸업 후 골드만삭스 도쿄 및 싱가폴에서 근무하였으며 2008년부터 Business Tianjin 이라는 중국경제잡지에 글로벌 경제와 중국경제 현황에 대하여 매월 영어로 글을 기고하고 있다. 세계 여러나라 여행을 다니며 현지의 문화,역사,음식,사람들과 마주하여 느끼는 것을 글로 담아내기를 즐기며, 급현하는 중국의 변화에 주시하고 있다. (현재 개인 블로그 운영중 http://hyuktae.wordpress.com)